MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2315 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 PM CST THU DEC 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...PARTS OF SERN CO AND EXTREME WRN OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 290540Z - 290945Z SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS NERN NM INTO PARTS OF SERN CO OVERNIGHT...WITH RATES RANGING FROM 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS DEVELOPING NNWWD ACROSS NERN NM AND SERN CO. LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A LOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN LBB AND AMA...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING NWD TO SWRN KS...AND THEN NEWD TO FAR SERN NEB/NWRN MO. GIVEN SLOW SEWD MOVEMENT OF SWRN STATES MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVERNIGHT...LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES. THUS...NLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS ERN CO INTO NERN NM ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB 32 F THROUGHOUT DISCUSSION AREA. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN IMPULSE AND 70 KT MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATING NWD THROUGH ERN PERIPHERY OF SWRN STATES CLOSED LOW. STRONG ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF THIS JET...EVIDENT BY CURRENT LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...MODERATE RAINFALL RATES...AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS... IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS NERN NM INTO SERN CO. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NERN NM INTO SERN CO...WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS AIDING IN HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES. ..PETERS.. 12/29/2006 ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 36660282 36230304 35450381 35700473 36590490 37800449 38070342 37850255 37230247
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2006/md2315.html
Storm Prediction Center