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Storm Prediction Center - Mesoscale Discussion

 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2316
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0651 AM CST FRI DEC 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEB / FAR ERN CO / WRN KS INTO THE OK PNHDL
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 291251Z - 291845Z
   
   THROUGH 18Z...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 1
   INCH /LOCALLY HIGHER IN CONVECTIVE BURSTS/ WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
   LIKELY ACROSS FAR ERN CO INTO WRN KS ALONG AND W OF KS HWY 27.  A
   MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND PERHAPS SLEET WILL BE MORE LIKELY
   FROM E OF KS HWY 27 TO U.S. HWY 83.  A SLOW EWD CHANGE OVER TO ALL
   SNOW WILL OCCUR TODAY AS COLD AIR GRADUALLY DEEPENS.
   
   11Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NE OF LBB WITH A
   SECONDARY LOW CENTER OVER THE NRN TX PNHDL /S OF GUY/.  ATTENDANT
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED NEWD FROM THIS NRN LOW TO JUST E OF
   GCK TO RSL TO N OF CNK.  LARGE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING
   THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF ERN CO/WRN KS INTO THE TX/OK
   PNHDLS...DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH LIFTING NWD THROUGH REGION...850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND
   LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG NOSE OF 30-40 KT SELY LLJ.  12Z SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY SNOW ACROSS FAR ERN CO WITH A MIX OF
   SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS ERN PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA.
   
   LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 850 MB BAROCLINIC
   ZONE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE ORIENTED N-S
   ACROSS WRN KS TODAY.  AS THIS OCCURS...A MESOSCALE BAND OF
   PRECIPITATION /WITH SIMILAR N-S ORIENTATION/ WILL LIKELY BECOME
   BETTER DEFINED WITHIN ZONE OF INTENSIFYING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. 
   THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED BY THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
   EXHIBITING CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /PER 12Z
   AMA/DDC SOUNDINGS/ WHICH ARE SUPPORTING N-S LINE OF ELEVATED TSTMS
   FROM THE TX S PLAINS INTO SWRN KS.
   
   FREEZING RAIN RATES OF .01-.05"/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
   FROM NEAR AND W OF GCK NWD TO MCK.  SNOW AND PERHAPS SLEET WILL
   PERIODICALLY MIX WITH THE FREEZING RAIN.  FARTHER TO THE W...OVER
   FAR WRN KS INTO ERN CO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE LARGELY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW...WITH
   RATES APPROACHING 1"/HR.  LOCALLY HEAVIER RATES UP TO 1.5"/HR WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE BURSTS.  TRANSITION LINE BETWEEN SNOW
   AND SNOW-FREEZING RAIN MIX WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD TODAY.
   
   ..MEAD.. 12/29/2006
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
   FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
   
   36660215 37230239 39430229 40410185 40590100 40230024
   39280053 38570071 37570095 36710164 
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2006/md2316.html
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