MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2616
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0944 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MA...SRN NH...EXTREME SWRN ME
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 150344Z - 150845Z
   
   STRONG NOREASTER NEAR ACY TO TRACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND OVER THE NEXT
   6 HOURS WHILE DEEPENING RAPIDLY. SURFACE FREEZING LINE HAS BEEN
   MAKING STEADY PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK NWWD ACROSS INTERIOR NERN MA AND SERN NH
   THROUGH 15/09Z BASED ON LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECASTS AND OBSERVED
   TRENDS.
   
   EXTREME BAROCLINICITY OF THIS SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN A VERY NARROW
   PTYPE TRANSITION ZONE ACROSS CT AND ERN MA THIS EVENING WITH SNOW
   CHANGING TO RAIN WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AFTER THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   REACH 32F...AND A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW MOST COMMON IN A 50-80 MILE
   BAND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WARM
   NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD FROM ERN MA
   INTO SRN NH AND EXTREME SWRN ME OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS AIDED BY
   70-80KT ELY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS SHOULD CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE
   FROM SLEET AND SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS FROM ORH
   TO NW OF PSM...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN EAST OF THIS LINE. NORTHWEST
   SECTIONS OF THE AREA /SEE GRAPHIC/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
   PRIMARILY SNOW AND SLEET WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GRADUALLY
   DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 12/15/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...ALY...
   
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