FXUS61 KILN 200314
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1015 PM EST SUN DEC 19 2004
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 10 MPH SO WILL GO AHEAD AND
CANCEL WIND CHILL ADVISORY SHORTLY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 845 PM EST SUN DEC 19 2004
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
TEMPS ALREADY DOWN TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN FA
WITH READINGS ABOUT 10 TO 15 ACROSS THE SOUTH. DO EXPECT WINDS TO
DECOUPLE IN LOWER LYING AREAS THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO
OUR SOUTH. WITH CLEAR SKIES...AREAS WHERE THE WINDS DO GO LIGHT
COULD EASILY DROP ANOTHER 5 DEGREES...AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE.
WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER FORECAST LOWS DOWN TO AROUND ZERO IN THE
NORTH BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE A FEW READINGS IN THE
ZERO TO 5 BELOW RANGE...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
COLUMBUS WHERE THE SNOW COVER APPEARED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER ON THE
LATE DAY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. ACROSS THE SOUTH...WILL ALLOW FOR
ZERO TO 5 ABOVE TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE COOLER TEMPS IN THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS. WILL ALSO LEAVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
NOW AS WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE AROUND 10 BELOW. WILL
PROBABLY BE ABLE TO DROP IT (OR ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE) LATER THIS
EVENING AS SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW 10 MPH OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. JGL
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 615 PM EST SUN DEC 19 2004
AVIATION(00Z-24Z)...
SKIES JUST ABOUT CLEAR ACROSS AREA THIS EVENING AND EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST ACROSS
TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...
WAA/ISENT LIFT BEGINS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AOB 700 MB...EXPECT MAINLY JUST SOME BKN AC TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. COULD SEE SOME CLEARING
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST LATE IN THE DAY BUT DECIDED NOT TO TRY TO
TIME IT WITH THIS SET OF TAFS AS IT WILL BE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.  JGL
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN DEC 19 2004
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SKIES HAD SCATTERED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERED INTO
THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS...AND WIND CHILLS WERE
AS LOW AS -7 F AT DAYTON.  A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS REQUIRED WHEN
WIND CHILLS REACH -10 F WITH SUSTAINED 10 MPH WINDS.  THIS WILL BE A
CLOSE CALL FOR THE NORTHERN ZONE. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL OBVIOUSLY
CONTINUE TO FALL...SO WILL WIND SPEEDS.  TO BE PRUDENT...WILL ISSUE
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR THIS EVENING.
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING....WAA DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH WITH
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON APPROPRIATE SFC(S)...WITH THE GFS BEING
STRONGER. HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
NORTH OF I-70.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT
FROM EARLY LOWS.
FOR TUESDAY...SOME PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WHILE A COLD FRONT
DESCENDS FROM THE NORTH.  LOOKING AT ETA AND GFS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES...THE PCPN SHOULD BE ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S.
HOWEVER...IT BECOMES COMPLICATED TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE ARE SOME
POSITIONAL AS WELL AS RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ETA AND
GFS AS THE LOW SLIDES ALONG THE BNDRY.  THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...BUT THE FAR NW COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
STILL SEEING LARGE RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHICH SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN WHAT WILL OCCUR. THE 06Z GFS RUN LOOKED REASONABLE AND HAD
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF. SO HAVE PATTERNED FORECAST ON THESE
PARTICULAR MODEL RUNS. BUT OBVIOUSLY THE SCENARIO THAT ULTIMATELY
HAPPENS COULD BE VASTLY DIFFERENT.
WITH THAT CAVEAT IN MIND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE FOR THE
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES WHICH LOOK LIKE THEY MAY STAY IN THE COLD AIR.
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
THAT MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME. SO COLD
AIR MOVING IN ON THE BACK SIDE WILL RESULT IN A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW SHOULD END THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MORE OF AN AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IN
BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. SO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY BUT AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT IT IS BETTER TO
LEAVE IT OUT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
 

FXUS61 KILN 200554
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
100 AM EST MON DEC 20 2004
AVIATION(06Z-06Z)...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 10 MPH SO WILL GO AHEAD AND
CANCEL WIND CHILL ADVISORY SHORTLY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 845 PM EST SUN DEC 19 2004
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
TEMPS ALREADY DOWN TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN FA
WITH READINGS ABOUT 10 TO 15 ACROSS THE SOUTH. DO EXPECT WINDS TO
DECOUPLE IN LOWER LYING AREAS THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO
OUR SOUTH. WITH CLEAR SKIES...AREAS WHERE THE WINDS DO GO LIGHT
COULD EASILY DROP ANOTHER 5 DEGREES...AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE.
WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER FORECAST LOWS DOWN TO AROUND ZERO IN THE
NORTH BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE A FEW READINGS IN THE
ZERO TO 5 BELOW RANGE...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
COLUMBUS WHERE THE SNOW COVER APPEARED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER ON THE
LATE DAY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. ACROSS THE SOUTH...WILL ALLOW FOR
ZERO TO 5 ABOVE TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE COOLER TEMPS IN THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS. WILL ALSO LEAVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
NOW AS WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE AROUND 10 BELOW. WILL
PROBABLY BE ABLE TO DROP IT (OR ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE) LATER THIS
EVENING AS SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW 10 MPH OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. JGL
&&
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN DEC 19 2004
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SKIES HAD SCATTERED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERED INTO
THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS...AND WIND CHILLS WERE
AS LOW AS -7 F AT DAYTON.  A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS REQUIRED WHEN
WIND CHILLS REACH -10 F WITH SUSTAINED 10 MPH WINDS.  THIS WILL BE A
CLOSE CALL FOR THE NORTHERN ZONE. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL OBVIOUSLY
CONTINUE TO FALL...SO WILL WIND SPEEDS.  TO BE PRUDENT...WILL ISSUE
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR THIS EVENING.
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING....WAA DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH WITH
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON APPROPRIATE SFC(S)...WITH THE GFS BEING
STRONGER. HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
NORTH OF I-70.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT
FROM EARLY LOWS.
FOR TUESDAY...SOME PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WHILE A COLD FRONT
DESCENDS FROM THE NORTH.  LOOKING AT ETA AND GFS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES...THE PCPN SHOULD BE ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S.
HOWEVER...IT BECOMES COMPLICATED TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE ARE SOME
POSITIONAL AS WELL AS RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ETA AND
GFS AS THE LOW SLIDES ALONG THE BNDRY.  THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...BUT THE FAR NW COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
STILL SEEING LARGE RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHICH SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN WHAT WILL OCCUR. THE 06Z GFS RUN LOOKED REASONABLE AND HAD
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF. SO HAVE PATTERNED FORECAST ON THESE
PARTICULAR MODEL RUNS. BUT OBVIOUSLY THE SCENARIO THAT ULTIMATELY
HAPPENS COULD BE VASTLY DIFFERENT.
WITH THAT CAVEAT IN MIND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE FOR THE
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES WHICH LOOK LIKE THEY MAY STAY IN THE COLD AIR.
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
THAT MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME. SO COLD
AIR MOVING IN ON THE BACK SIDE WILL RESULT IN A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW SHOULD END THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MORE OF AN AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IN
BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. SO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY BUT AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT IT IS BETTER TO
LEAVE IT OUT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$

FXUS61 KILN 201010
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
510 AM EST MON DEC 20 2004
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING
TO SHIFT E WITH WAA DEVELOPING AHD OF NEXT DIGGING SYSTEM OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM TO SWEEP THRU THE GRTLKS TDA/TNGT. BEST
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE TO STAY TO THE NORTH. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE
WAA. HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVE ACRS THE N WHERE BEST ISENT WILL EXIST. THIS MAY END
UP BEING A FEW FLURRIES. TEMPS WL BE TRICKY TODAY. DUE TO THE
VERY COLD START HAVE GONE A LTL COLDER THAN GUID TEMPS TDA.
FOR TNGT EXPECT CLDS TO THIN THIS EVENING AND THEN REDEVELOP
LATER TNGT. HAVE MENTIONED EARLY LOWS WITH RISING TEMPS WITH
SWRLY WINDS INCREASING AHD OF NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS FRONT TO SLIP INTO OHIO AND STALL OUT ON TUE. EXPECT A
GOOD DEAL OF CLDS ON TUE BUT DUE TO LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP
MSTR HAVE OPTD FOR A DRY FCST. GENERALLY PREFER TEMPS A LTL
COOLER THAN WARMER MAV GUID.
THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SRN
PLAINS WHICH IS EXPECTD TO LIFT NE INTO OH VLY BY THU MRNG. GFS
IS DEEPER ANBD FARTHER W WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET
OF PRECIP UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE WL BE TRICKY.
HAVE ALL SNOW IN THE NW WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE
PSBL WITH A MIX MOST OTHER LOCALS CHANGING TO SNOW WED/WED NIGHT.
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS STORM TRACK AND NO CONSISTENT
TREND. THEREFORE...WL HIGHLIGHT IT IN THE HWO BUT DO NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR AN OUTLOOK.
HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COLDER TUE NIGHT/WED BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS MAV GUID. BASED ON RAIN/SNOW TECH EVEN WITH THE ETA...LATEST
GUID WUD SUGGEST MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED
SNOW AMTS IN THE GRAPHICS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN DEC 19 2004
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
STILL SEEING LARGE RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHICH SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN WHAT WILL OCCUR. THE 06Z GFS RUN LOOKED REASONABLE AND HAD
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF. SO HAVE PATTERNED FORECAST ON THESE
PARTICULAR MODEL RUNS. BUT OBVIOUSLY THE SCENARIO THAT ULTIMATELY
HAPPENS COULD BE VASTLY DIFFERENT.
WITH THAT CAVEAT IN MIND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE FOR THE
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES WHICH LOOK LIKE THEY MAY STAY IN THE COLD AIR.
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
THAT MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME. SO COLD
AIR MOVING IN ON THE BACK SIDE WILL RESULT IN A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW SHOULD END THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MORE OF AN AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IN
BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. SO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY BUT AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT IT IS BETTER TO
LEAVE IT OUT.
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 100 AM EST MON DEC 20 2004
AVIATION(06Z-06Z)...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 10 MPH SO WILL GO AHEAD AND
CANCEL WIND CHILL ADVISORY SHORTLY.
&&
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
 

FXUS61 KILN 201140
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
640 AM EST MON DEC 20 2004
AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION...AND A MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
AROUND TODAY...WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10SM.  VFR
STRATOCUMULUS IS FORECAST TO FORM TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER
TO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL REMAIN UP
TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING
TO SHIFT E WITH WAA DEVELOPING AHD OF NEXT DIGGING SYSTEM OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM TO SWEEP THRU THE GRTLKS TDA/TNGT. BEST
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE TO STAY TO THE NORTH. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE
WAA. HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVE ACRS THE N WHERE BEST ISENT WILL EXIST. THIS MAY END
UP BEING A FEW FLURRIES. TEMPS WL BE TRICKY TODAY. DUE TO THE
VERY COLD START HAVE GONE A LTL COLDER THAN GUID TEMPS TDA.
FOR TNGT EXPECT CLDS TO THIN THIS EVENING AND THEN REDEVELOP
LATER TNGT. HAVE MENTIONED EARLY LOWS WITH RISING TEMPS WITH
SWRLY WINDS INCREASING AHD OF NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS FRONT TO SLIP INTO OHIO AND STALL OUT ON TUE. EXPECT A
GOOD DEAL OF CLDS ON TUE BUT DUE TO LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP
MSTR HAVE OPTD FOR A DRY FCST. GENERALLY PREFER TEMPS A LTL
COOLER THAN WARMER MAV GUID.
THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SRN
PLAINS WHICH IS EXPECTD TO LIFT NE INTO OH VLY BY THU MRNG. GFS
IS DEEPER ANBD FARTHER W WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET
OF PRECIP UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE WL BE TRICKY.
HAVE ALL SNOW IN THE NW WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE
PSBL WITH A MIX MOST OTHER LOCALS CHANGING TO SNOW WED/WED NIGHT.
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS STORM TRACK AND NO CONSISTENT
TREND. THEREFORE...WL HIGHLIGHT IT IN THE HWO BUT DO NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR AN OUTLOOK.
HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COLDER TUE NIGHT/WED BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS MAV GUID. BASED ON RAIN/SNOW TECH EVEN WITH THE ETA...LATEST
GUID WUD SUGGEST MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED
SNOW AMTS IN THE GRAPHICS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN DEC 19 2004
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
STILL SEEING LARGE RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHICH SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN WHAT WILL OCCUR. THE 06Z GFS RUN LOOKED REASONABLE AND HAD
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF. SO HAVE PATTERNED FORECAST ON THESE
PARTICULAR MODEL RUNS. BUT OBVIOUSLY THE SCENARIO THAT ULTIMATELY
HAPPENS COULD BE VASTLY DIFFERENT.
WITH THAT CAVEAT IN MIND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE FOR THE
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES WHICH LOOK LIKE THEY MAY STAY IN THE COLD AIR.
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
THAT MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME. SO COLD
AIR MOVING IN ON THE BACK SIDE WILL RESULT IN A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW SHOULD END THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MORE OF AN AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IN
BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. SO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY BUT AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT IT IS BETTER TO
LEAVE IT OUT.
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 100 AM EST MON DEC 20 2004
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 10 MPH SO WILL GO AHEAD AND
CANCEL WIND CHILL ADVISORY SHORTLY.
&&
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
 

FXUS61 KILN 201526
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1026 AM EST MON DEC 20 2004
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EAST INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH RETURN FLOW EVIDENT INTO WESTERN FORECAST
AREA.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS OVER
INDIANA.  THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ALREADY SENT...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GREAT SHAPE.  REMOVED
MORNING WORDING AND WIND CHILL WORDING.  WIND CHILLS WERE FOR THIS
MORNING...WIND CHILLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOVE ZERO WITH THE
TEMPS WARMING AS THE WIND INCREASES.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 640 AM EST MON DEC 20 2004
AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION...AND A MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
AROUND TODAY...WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10SM.  VFR
STRATOCUMULUS IS FORECAST TO FORM TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER
TO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL REMAIN UP
TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 640 AM EST MON DEC 20 2004
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING
TO SHIFT E WITH WAA DEVELOPING AHD OF NEXT DIGGING SYSTEM OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM TO SWEEP THRU THE GRTLKS TDA/TNGT. BEST
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE TO STAY TO THE NORTH. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE
WAA. HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVE ACRS THE N WHERE BEST ISENT WILL EXIST. THIS MAY END
UP BEING A FEW FLURRIES. TEMPS WL BE TRICKY TODAY. DUE TO THE
VERY COLD START HAVE GONE A LTL COLDER THAN GUID TEMPS TDA.
FOR TNGT EXPECT CLDS TO THIN THIS EVENING AND THEN REDEVELOP
LATER TNGT. HAVE MENTIONED EARLY LOWS WITH RISING TEMPS WITH
SWRLY WINDS INCREASING AHD OF NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS FRONT TO SLIP INTO OHIO AND STALL OUT ON TUE. EXPECT A
GOOD DEAL OF CLDS ON TUE BUT DUE TO LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP
MSTR HAVE OPTD FOR A DRY FCST. GENERALLY PREFER TEMPS A LTL
COOLER THAN WARMER MAV GUID.
THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SRN
PLAINS WHICH IS EXPECTD TO LIFT NE INTO OH VLY BY THU MRNG. GFS
IS DEEPER ANBD FARTHER W WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET
OF PRECIP UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE WL BE TRICKY.
HAVE ALL SNOW IN THE NW WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE
PSBL WITH A MIX MOST OTHER LOCALS CHANGING TO SNOW WED/WED NIGHT.
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS STORM TRACK AND NO CONSISTENT
TREND. THEREFORE...WL HIGHLIGHT IT IN THE HWO BUT DO NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR AN OUTLOOK.
HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COLDER TUE NIGHT/WED BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS MAV GUID. BASED ON RAIN/SNOW TECH EVEN WITH THE ETA...LATEST
GUID WUD SUGGEST MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED
SNOW AMTS IN THE GRAPHICS.
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN DEC 19 2004
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
STILL SEEING LARGE RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHICH SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN WHAT WILL OCCUR. THE 06Z GFS RUN LOOKED REASONABLE AND HAD
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF. SO HAVE PATTERNED FORECAST ON THESE
PARTICULAR MODEL RUNS. BUT OBVIOUSLY THE SCENARIO THAT ULTIMATELY
HAPPENS COULD BE VASTLY DIFFERENT.
WITH THAT CAVEAT IN MIND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE FOR THE
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES WHICH LOOK LIKE THEY MAY STAY IN THE COLD AIR.
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
THAT MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME. SO COLD
AIR MOVING IN ON THE BACK SIDE WILL RESULT IN A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW SHOULD END THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MORE OF AN AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IN
BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. SO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY BUT AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT IT IS BETTER TO
LEAVE IT OUT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
 

FXUS61 KILN 201727
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1227 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004
.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS...MID CLOUDS...
WORKING CVG...DAY...LUK.  THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD.  STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.  AFTER SUN UP ON TUESDAY MIXING WILL BRING A
GUST COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.  STRATA CU WILL DEVELOP AND ADVECT
OVER TAF SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 1026 AM EST MON DEC 20 2004
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EAST INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH RETURN FLOW EVIDENT INTO WESTERN FORECAST
AREA.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS OVER
INDIANA.  THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ALREADY SENT...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GREAT SHAPE.  REMOVED
MORNING WORDING AND WIND CHILL WORDING.  WIND CHILLS WERE FOR THIS
MORNING...WIND CHILLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOVE ZERO WITH THE
TEMPS WARMING AS THE WIND INCREASES.
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 640 AM EST MON DEC 20 2004
AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION...AND A MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
AROUND TODAY...WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10SM.  VFR
STRATOCUMULUS IS FORECAST TO FORM TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER
TO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL REMAIN UP
TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 640 AM EST MON DEC 20 2004
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING
TO SHIFT E WITH WAA DEVELOPING AHD OF NEXT DIGGING SYSTEM OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM TO SWEEP THRU THE GRTLKS TDA/TNGT. BEST
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE TO STAY TO THE NORTH. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE
WAA. HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVE ACRS THE N WHERE BEST ISENT WILL EXIST. THIS MAY END
UP BEING A FEW FLURRIES. TEMPS WL BE TRICKY TODAY. DUE TO THE
VERY COLD START HAVE GONE A LTL COLDER THAN GUID TEMPS TDA.
FOR TNGT EXPECT CLDS TO THIN THIS EVENING AND THEN REDEVELOP
LATER TNGT. HAVE MENTIONED EARLY LOWS WITH RISING TEMPS WITH
SWRLY WINDS INCREASING AHD OF NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS FRONT TO SLIP INTO OHIO AND STALL OUT ON TUE. EXPECT A
GOOD DEAL OF CLDS ON TUE BUT DUE TO LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP
MSTR HAVE OPTD FOR A DRY FCST. GENERALLY PREFER TEMPS A LTL
COOLER THAN WARMER MAV GUID.
THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SRN
PLAINS WHICH IS EXPECTD TO LIFT NE INTO OH VLY BY THU MRNG. GFS
IS DEEPER ANBD FARTHER W WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET
OF PRECIP UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE WL BE TRICKY.
HAVE ALL SNOW IN THE NW WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE
PSBL WITH A MIX MOST OTHER LOCALS CHANGING TO SNOW WED/WED NIGHT.
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS STORM TRACK AND NO CONSISTENT
TREND. THEREFORE...WL HIGHLIGHT IT IN THE HWO BUT DO NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR AN OUTLOOK.
HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COLDER TUE NIGHT/WED BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS MAV GUID. BASED ON RAIN/SNOW TECH EVEN WITH THE ETA...LATEST
GUID WUD SUGGEST MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED
SNOW AMTS IN THE GRAPHICS.
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN DEC 19 2004
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
STILL SEEING LARGE RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHICH SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN WHAT WILL OCCUR. THE 06Z GFS RUN LOOKED REASONABLE AND HAD
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF. SO HAVE PATTERNED FORECAST ON THESE
PARTICULAR MODEL RUNS. BUT OBVIOUSLY THE SCENARIO THAT ULTIMATELY
HAPPENS COULD BE VASTLY DIFFERENT.
WITH THAT CAVEAT IN MIND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE FOR THE
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES WHICH LOOK LIKE THEY MAY STAY IN THE COLD AIR.
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
THAT MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME. SO COLD
AIR MOVING IN ON THE BACK SIDE WILL RESULT IN A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW SHOULD END THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MORE OF AN AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IN
BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. SO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY BUT AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT IT IS BETTER TO
LEAVE IT OUT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM: TIPTON
AVIATION: TIPTON
 

FXUS61 KILN 201842
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
300 PM EST SUN DEC 19 2004
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LATEST 12Z UKMET...12Z ETA AND 12Z GFS ARE TRYING TO ZERO IN ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF SFC LOW. AT 12Z THURSDAY...UKMET IS
FURTHEST WEST (NEAR PORTSMOUTH 1001 MB)...GFS IN THE MIDDLE AND
DEEPEST (995 MB NEAR MARIETTA) AND ETA WEAKEST AND FURTHEST EAST
(1006 MB NEAR CHARLESTON...W VA).  IN EITHER CASE...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE WRN CWFA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN.  SFC LOW WILL RAPIDLY MOVE OFF
TO THE NE ON THURSDAY...PULLING IN MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
IN A WNW FLOW.  RAIN...MIXED RAIN/SNOW IN THE EAST WILL TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN
HOURS.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A
SMALL CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS LEFT.
ON FRIDAY...COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
SOME MID LVL CLOUDINESS STREAMS ACRS THE CWFA IN A SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
COLDEST AIR CAN BE EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VLY.  FOR NOW...HAVE GONE
CONSERVATIVE FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...IF DECENT SNOW PACK OCCURS FROM AFOREMENTIONED WINTER
STORM...TEMPS MAY BE MUCH COLDER.  IN EITHER CASE...ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS DURING MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE PRESERVED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.
ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS BEGINS TO RETREAT OFF
TO THE EAST.  UPR LVL FLOW PATTERN ALSO TRANSITIONS FROM A COLD MEAN
UPR LVL TROF OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES TO MID LVL RIDGING..  A WARM
FRONT WILL GRAZE OUR WRN AREAS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A BATCH OF WAA CLOUDINESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS MID LVL RIDGE HOLDS SWAY.
TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SHOW A GRADUAL MODERATION IN
TEMPS...MORE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004
AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS...MID
CLOUDS...WORKING CVG...DAY...LUK.  THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD.  STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS.  AFTER SUN UP ON TUESDAY MIXING WILL BRING A GUST
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.  STRATA CU WILL DEVELOP AND ADVECT OVER TAF
SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z OVERNIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$

FXUS61 KILN 202024
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
321 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
TONIGHT...WAA WILL BEGIN AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S BY 12Z AFTER EARLY LOWS THIS EVENING.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO...BUT SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA.
FOR TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT DESCENDS FROM THE NORTH WHILE A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.  LOOKING
AT ETA AND GFS TIME HEIGHT PROFILES...SHALLOW MOISTURE IS INDICATED.
MET AND MAV GUIDANCE POPS ARE MINISCULE AS WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH DRY FCST AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S.
IT BECOMES COMPLICATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  IN
GENERAL...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW...AND THE TREND IS TOWARD A COLDER AND WETTER SOLUTION
FOR THE FCST AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME POSITIONAL AND STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH THE ETA AND GFS
AS THE LOW SLIDES ALONG THE BNDRY.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...BUT LOOKING AT ETA AND GFS
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR AREAS WEST OF I-71.  A WINTERY MIX OR RAIN WILL
POSSIBLE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FOR WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO
ALL SNOW EVEN IN THE FAR SE BY THURSDAY MORNING.  IF THE PRESENT
SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...WINTER
STORM WATCH CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
HOWEVER... WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR THIS ISSUE SINCE IT IS THE
4TH PERIOD FOR OUR AREA.  WILL CONTINUE THE OUTLOOK AND ISSUE AN
SPS.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LATEST 12Z UKMET...12Z ETA AND 12Z GFS ARE TRYING TO ZERO IN ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF SFC LOW. AT 12Z THURSDAY...UKMET IS
FURTHEST WEST (NEAR PORTSMOUTH 1001 MB)...GFS IN THE MIDDLE AND
DEEPEST (995 MB NEAR MARIETTA) AND ETA WEAKEST AND FURTHEST EAST
(1006 MB NEAR CHARLESTON...W VA).  IN EITHER CASE...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE WRN CWFA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN.  SFC LOW WILL RAPIDLY MOVE OFF
TO THE NE ON THURSDAY...PULLING IN MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
IN A WNW FLOW.  RAIN...MIXED RAIN/SNOW IN THE EAST WILL TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN
HOURS.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A
SMALL CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS LEFT.
ON FRIDAY...COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
SOME MID LVL CLOUDINESS STREAMS ACRS THE CWFA IN A SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
COLDEST AIR CAN BE EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VLY.  FOR NOW...HAVE GONE
CONSERVATIVE FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...IF DECENT SNOW PACK OCCURS FROM AFOREMENTIONED WINTER
STORM...TEMPS MAY BE MUCH COLDER.  IN EITHER CASE...ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS DURING MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE PRESERVED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.
ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS BEGINS TO RETREAT OFF
TO THE EAST.  UPR LVL FLOW PATTERN ALSO TRANSITIONS FROM A COLD MEAN
UPR LVL TROF OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES TO MID LVL RIDGING..  A WARM
FRONT WILL GRAZE OUR WRN AREAS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A BATCH OF WAA CLOUDINESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS MID LVL RIDGE HOLDS SWAY.
TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SHOW A GRADUAL MODERATION IN
TEMPS...MORE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004
AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS...MID
CLOUDS...WORKING CVG...DAY...LUK.  THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD.  STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS.  AFTER SUN UP ON TUESDAY MIXING WILL BRING A GUST
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.  STRATA CU WILL DEVELOP AND ADVECT OVER TAF
SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z OVERNIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
 

FXUS61 KILN 210011
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...00Z AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
711 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004
.AVIATION (00Z-00Z)...
AC DECK HAD LIFTED NORTH OF TAF SITES THIS EVNG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70.  SFC LO BACK ACRS NRN PLAINS WITH
WHAT APPEARS TO BE TWO WARM FRONTS.  FIRST FRONT IS WELL TO OUR
NORTH...WITH PCPN AND CLOUDS ACRS GRT LKS.  SECOND WARM FRONT
EXTENDS SE FROM NRN PLAINS LO...ACRS ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KY.  THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO REGION OVERNIGHT.  ETA INDCG MODEST
ISENT LIFT AT 285K DVLPG ALONG BNDRY BTWN 06Z AND 12Z...AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN SC CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SO AFTER
STARTING WITH MSTLY CLR SKIES AL ATT TAF SITES THIS EVNG...BRING IN
BKN SC AROUND MIDNITE AND CONTINUING FOR REMAINDER OF NIGHT.  18Z
RUN OF ETA12 HINTING AT SOME DEEPER BNDRY LYR MOISTURE WORKING INTO
CVG AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO LOWER INTO MVFR
RANGE.  HAVE HELD THIS OUT FOR TIME BEING...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THESE TRENDS AS CLOUDS DVLP LATE TONIGHT.  ISENT LIFT DIMINISHES BY
MID MRNG TUES...AND ACTUALLY MAY JUST SEE SCT SC FOR AFTN WITH AC/CI
ACTING AS PREDOMINANT DECK.  REGARDLESS...APPEARS THAT MAJORITY OF
TAF FCST WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS.  HAVE BROUGHT IN MVFR CIGS AROUND
2500 FT FOR LAST FEW HOURS OF FCST LATE TUES AFTN AT
KCVG/KLUK/KILN.  BNDRY LYR MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE NORTH DURING
LATE AFTN HOURS AS COLD FRONT STALLS ACRS FCST AREA AND INV TROF
DVLPG IN LWR MISSISSIPPI VLY.  THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN
AND LOWER TUES NIGHT.
ONLY OTHER ISSUE ARE WINDS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP THRU MAJORITY OF
FCST PERIOD.  FAIRLY TIGHT SFC GRADIENT BTWN SFC HI ACRS SE CONUS
AND SFC LO OVER NRN PLAINS.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG 30-35KT WINDS AS
LOW AS 1500 FT AGL FOR GOOD PART OF DAY TUES...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
GUSTS APPCHG 25KTS.  LESS CLOUDS ON TUES SHOULD ALSO AID IN BNDRY
LYR MIXING. SE WINDS THIS EVNG WILL VEER TO S AND EVENTUALLY SW AS
WARM FRONT CROSSES TAF SITES.  SFC GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT BY LATE
AFTN...SO REMOVE GUSTS FOR LAST FEW HOURS OF TAF FCST.
RYAN
&&
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 324 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
TONIGHT...WAA WILL BEGIN AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S BY 12Z AFTER EARLY LOWS THIS EVENING.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO...BUT SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA.
FOR TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT DESCENDS FROM THE NORTH WHILE A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.  LOOKING
AT ETA AND GFS TIME HEIGHT PROFILES...SHALLOW MOISTURE IS INDICATED.
MET AND MAV GUIDANCE POPS ARE MINISCULE AS WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH DRY FCST AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S.
IT BECOMES COMPLICATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  IN
GENERAL...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW...AND THE TREND IS TOWARD A COLDER AND WETTER SOLUTION
FOR THE FCST AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME POSITIONAL AND STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH THE ETA AND GFS
AS THE LOW SLIDES ALONG THE BNDRY.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...BUT LOOKING AT ETA AND GFS
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR AREAS WEST OF I-71.  A WINTERY MIX OR RAIN WILL
POSSIBLE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FOR WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO
ALL SNOW EVEN IN THE FAR SE BY THURSDAY MORNING.  IF THE PRESENT
SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...WINTER
STORM WATCH CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
HOWEVER... WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR THIS ISSUE SINCE IT IS THE
4TH PERIOD FOR OUR AREA.  WILL CONTINUE THE OUTLOOK AND ISSUE AN
SPS.
&&
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 324 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LATEST 12Z UKMET...12Z ETA AND 12Z GFS ARE TRYING TO ZERO IN ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF SFC LOW. AT 12Z THURSDAY...UKMET IS
FURTHEST WEST (NEAR PORTSMOUTH 1001 MB)...GFS IN THE MIDDLE AND
DEEPEST (995 MB NEAR MARIETTA) AND ETA WEAKEST AND FURTHEST EAST
(1006 MB NEAR CHARLESTON...W VA).  IN EITHER CASE...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE WRN CWFA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN.  SFC LOW WILL RAPIDLY MOVE OFF
TO THE NE ON THURSDAY...PULLING IN MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
IN A WNW FLOW.  RAIN...MIXED RAIN/SNOW IN THE EAST WILL TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN
HOURS.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A
SMALL CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS LEFT.
ON FRIDAY...COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
SOME MID LVL CLOUDINESS STREAMS ACRS THE CWFA IN A SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
COLDEST AIR CAN BE EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VLY.  FOR NOW...HAVE GONE
CONSERVATIVE FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...IF DECENT SNOW PACK OCCURS FROM AFOREMENTIONED WINTER
STORM...TEMPS MAY BE MUCH COLDER.  IN EITHER CASE...ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS DURING MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE PRESERVED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.
ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS BEGINS TO RETREAT OFF
TO THE EAST.  UPR LVL FLOW PATTERN ALSO TRANSITIONS FROM A COLD MEAN
UPR LVL TROF OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES TO MID LVL RIDGING..  A WARM
FRONT WILL GRAZE OUR WRN AREAS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A BATCH OF WAA CLOUDINESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS MID LVL RIDGE HOLDS SWAY.
TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SHOW A GRADUAL MODERATION IN
TEMPS...MORE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004
AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS...MID
CLOUDS...WORKING CVG...DAY...LUK.  THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD.  STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS.  AFTER SUN UP ON TUESDAY MIXING WILL BRING A GUST
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.  STRATA CU WILL DEVELOP AND ADVECT OVER TAF
SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z OVERNIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
 

FXUS61 KILN 210208
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...EVENING UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
908 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004
.EVENING UPDATE (OVERNIGHT)...
WAA STARTING TO KICK IN ACRS FCST AREA AS SE WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
ABV 20 MPH THE LAST FEW HOURS.  WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACRS KY
THIS EVNG...AND THIS WILL MOVE ACRS FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT.  LOW
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED...AS TEMPS NEAR 30 AS CLOSE AS
WESTERN KY.
JUST A FEW CHANGES TO FCST OVERNIGHT.  FIRST WAS TO ADDRESS CLOUD
COVER AS SKIES HAVE GONE CLEAR ACRS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.  ETA12
INDCG ISENT LIFT AT 285K DVLPG BTWN 06Z AND 12Z ACRS FCST AREA...AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SCT/BKN SC TO DVLP ACRS FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED TO MSTLY CLR FOR THIS EVNG WITH SKIES BECMG MSTLY CLDY
LATE.  MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMPS/DEWPTS AS TEMPS HAVE NOT
RISEN QUITE AS FAST AS ORIGINALLY FCST.  NEVERTHELESS...THINK
MAJORITY OF FCST AREA WILL SEE TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABV 30 DEGREES BY
DAYBREAK TUES.  WITH LOWS ALREADY HAVING BEEN REACHED...ADJUSTED TO
JUST MENTION RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. WINDS LIKELY TO STAY UP IN
10-20 MPH RANGE ALL NIGHT AS STRONG WAA CONTINUES AND SFC GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHT ACRS OH VLY.
REST OF FCST LOOKS GREAT...UPDATE ALREADY OUT.  PREV DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
RYAN
&&
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 324 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
TONIGHT...WAA WILL BEGIN AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S BY 12Z AFTER EARLY LOWS THIS EVENING.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO...BUT SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA.
FOR TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT DESCENDS FROM THE NORTH WHILE A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.  LOOKING
AT ETA AND GFS TIME HEIGHT PROFILES...SHALLOW MOISTURE IS INDICATED.
MET AND MAV GUIDANCE POPS ARE MINISCULE AS WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH DRY FCST AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S.
IT BECOMES COMPLICATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  IN
GENERAL...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW...AND THE TREND IS TOWARD A COLDER AND WETTER SOLUTION
FOR THE FCST AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME POSITIONAL AND STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH THE ETA AND GFS
AS THE LOW SLIDES ALONG THE BNDRY.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...BUT LOOKING AT ETA AND GFS
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR AREAS WEST OF I-71.  A WINTERY MIX OR RAIN WILL
POSSIBLE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FOR WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO
ALL SNOW EVEN IN THE FAR SE BY THURSDAY MORNING.  IF THE PRESENT
SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...WINTER
STORM WATCH CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
HOWEVER... WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR THIS ISSUE SINCE IT IS THE
4TH PERIOD FOR OUR AREA.  WILL CONTINUE THE OUTLOOK AND ISSUE AN
SPS.
&&
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 324 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LATEST 12Z UKMET...12Z ETA AND 12Z GFS ARE TRYING TO ZERO IN ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF SFC LOW. AT 12Z THURSDAY...UKMET IS
FURTHEST WEST (NEAR PORTSMOUTH 1001 MB)...GFS IN THE MIDDLE AND
DEEPEST (995 MB NEAR MARIETTA) AND ETA WEAKEST AND FURTHEST EAST
(1006 MB NEAR CHARLESTON...W VA).  IN EITHER CASE...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE WRN CWFA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN.  SFC LOW WILL RAPIDLY MOVE OFF
TO THE NE ON THURSDAY...PULLING IN MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
IN A WNW FLOW.  RAIN...MIXED RAIN/SNOW IN THE EAST WILL TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN
HOURS.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A
SMALL CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS LEFT.
ON FRIDAY...COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
SOME MID LVL CLOUDINESS STREAMS ACRS THE CWFA IN A SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
COLDEST AIR CAN BE EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VLY.  FOR NOW...HAVE GONE
CONSERVATIVE FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...IF DECENT SNOW PACK OCCURS FROM AFOREMENTIONED WINTER
STORM...TEMPS MAY BE MUCH COLDER.  IN EITHER CASE...ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS DURING MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE PRESERVED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.
ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS BEGINS TO RETREAT OFF
TO THE EAST.  UPR LVL FLOW PATTERN ALSO TRANSITIONS FROM A COLD MEAN
UPR LVL TROF OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES TO MID LVL RIDGING..  A WARM
FRONT WILL GRAZE OUR WRN AREAS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A BATCH OF WAA CLOUDINESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS MID LVL RIDGE HOLDS SWAY.
TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SHOW A GRADUAL MODERATION IN
TEMPS...MORE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 711 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004
.AVIATION (00Z-00Z)...
AC DECK HAD LIFTED NORTH OF TAF SITES THIS EVNG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70.  SFC LO BACK ACRS NRN PLAINS WITH
WHAT APPEARS TO BE TWO WARM FRONTS.  FIRST FRONT IS WELL TO OUR
NORTH...WITH PCPN AND CLOUDS ACRS GRT LKS.  SECOND WARM FRONT
EXTENDS SE FROM NRN PLAINS LO...ACRS ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KY.  THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO REGION OVERNIGHT.  ETA INDCG MODEST
ISENT LIFT AT 285K DVLPG ALONG BNDRY BTWN 06Z AND 12Z...AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN SC CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SO AFTER
STARTING WITH MSTLY CLR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVNG...BRING IN
BKN SC AROUND MIDNITE AND CONTINUING FOR REMAINDER OF NIGHT.  18Z
RUN OF ETA12 HINTING AT SOME DEEPER BNDRY LYR MOISTURE WORKING INTO
CVG AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO LOWER INTO MVFR
RANGE.  HAVE HELD THIS OUT FOR TIME BEING...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THESE TRENDS AS CLOUDS DVLP LATE TONIGHT.  ISENT LIFT DIMINISHES BY
MID MRNG TUES...AND ACTUALLY MAY JUST SEE SCT SC FOR AFTN WITH AC/CI
ACTING AS PREDOMINANT DECK.  REGARDLESS...APPEARS THAT MAJORITY OF
TAF FCST WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS.  HAVE BROUGHT IN MVFR CIGS AROUND
2500 FT FOR LAST FEW HOURS OF FCST LATE TUES AFTN AT
KCVG/KLUK/KILN.  BNDRY LYR MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE NORTH DURING
LATE AFTN HOURS AS COLD FRONT STALLS ACRS FCST AREA AND INV TROF
DVLPG IN LWR MISSISSIPPI VLY.  THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN
AND LOWER TUES NIGHT.
ONLY OTHER ISSUE ARE WINDS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP THRU MAJORITY OF
FCST PERIOD.  FAIRLY TIGHT SFC GRADIENT BTWN SFC HI ACRS SE CONUS
AND SFC LO OVER NRN PLAINS.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG 30-35KT WINDS AS
LOW AS 1500 FT AGL FOR GOOD PART OF DAY TUES...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
GUSTS APPCHG 25KTS.  LESS CLOUDS ON TUES SHOULD ALSO AID IN BNDRY
LYR MIXING. SE WINDS THIS EVNG WILL VEER TO S AND EVENTUALLY SW AS
WARM FRONT CROSSES TAF SITES.  SFC GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT BY LATE
AFTN...SO REMOVE GUSTS FOR LAST FEW HOURS OF TAF FCST.
RYAN
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
 

FXUS61 KILN 210625
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
120 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2004
.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST.  SKY COVER WILL
INCREASE DURING THE FORECAST AS FRONT MOVES IN AND POTENT WAVE
APPROACHES.  GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIP AHEAD OF THE MAJOR SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSING IN AT 06Z...BUT NOT YET AT TAF SITES.
&&
.EVENING UPDATE (OVERNIGHT)...
WAA STARTING TO KICK IN ACRS FCST AREA AS SE WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
ABV 20 MPH THE LAST FEW HOURS.  WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACRS KY
THIS EVNG...AND THIS WILL MOVE ACRS FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT.  LOW
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED...AS TEMPS NEAR 30 AS CLOSE AS
WESTERN KY.
JUST A FEW CHANGES TO FCST OVERNIGHT.  FIRST WAS TO ADDRESS CLOUD
COVER AS SKIES HAVE GONE CLEAR ACRS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.  ETA12
INDCG ISENT LIFT AT 285K DVLPG BTWN 06Z AND 12Z ACRS FCST AREA...AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SCT/BKN SC TO DVLP ACRS FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED TO MSTLY CLR FOR THIS EVNG WITH SKIES BECMG MSTLY CLDY
LATE.  MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMPS/DEWPTS AS TEMPS HAVE NOT
RISEN QUITE AS FAST AS ORIGINALLY FCST.  NEVERTHELESS...THINK
MAJORITY OF FCST AREA WILL SEE TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABV 30 DEGREES BY
DAYBREAK TUES.  WITH LOWS ALREADY HAVING BEEN REACHED...ADJUSTED TO
JUST MENTION RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. WINDS LIKELY TO STAY UP IN
10-20 MPH RANGE ALL NIGHT AS STRONG WAA CONTINUES AND SFC GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHT ACRS OH VLY.
REST OF FCST LOOKS GREAT...UPDATE ALREADY OUT.  PREV DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
RYAN
&&
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 324 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
TONIGHT...WAA WILL BEGIN AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S BY 12Z AFTER EARLY LOWS THIS EVENING.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO...BUT SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA.
FOR TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT DESCENDS FROM THE NORTH WHILE A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.  LOOKING
AT ETA AND GFS TIME HEIGHT PROFILES...SHALLOW MOISTURE IS INDICATED.
MET AND MAV GUIDANCE POPS ARE MINISCULE AS WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH DRY FCST AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S.
IT BECOMES COMPLICATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  IN
GENERAL...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW...AND THE TREND IS TOWARD A COLDER AND WETTER SOLUTION
FOR THE FCST AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME POSITIONAL AND STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH THE ETA AND GFS
AS THE LOW SLIDES ALONG THE BNDRY.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...BUT LOOKING AT ETA AND GFS
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR AREAS WEST OF I-71.  A WINTERY MIX OR RAIN WILL
POSSIBLE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FOR WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO
ALL SNOW EVEN IN THE FAR SE BY THURSDAY MORNING.  IF THE PRESENT
SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...WINTER
STORM WATCH CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
HOWEVER... WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR THIS ISSUE SINCE IT IS THE
4TH PERIOD FOR OUR AREA.  WILL CONTINUE THE OUTLOOK AND ISSUE AN
SPS.
&&
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 324 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LATEST 12Z UKMET...12Z ETA AND 12Z GFS ARE TRYING TO ZERO IN ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF SFC LOW. AT 12Z THURSDAY...UKMET IS
FURTHEST WEST (NEAR PORTSMOUTH 1001 MB)...GFS IN THE MIDDLE AND
DEEPEST (995 MB NEAR MARIETTA) AND ETA WEAKEST AND FURTHEST EAST
(1006 MB NEAR CHARLESTON...W VA).  IN EITHER CASE...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE WRN CWFA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN.  SFC LOW WILL RAPIDLY MOVE OFF
TO THE NE ON THURSDAY...PULLING IN MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
IN A WNW FLOW.  RAIN...MIXED RAIN/SNOW IN THE EAST WILL TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN
HOURS.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A
SMALL CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS LEFT.
ON FRIDAY...COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
SOME MID LVL CLOUDINESS STREAMS ACRS THE CWFA IN A SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
COLDEST AIR CAN BE EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VLY.  FOR NOW...HAVE GONE
CONSERVATIVE FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...IF DECENT SNOW PACK OCCURS FROM AFOREMENTIONED WINTER
STORM...TEMPS MAY BE MUCH COLDER.  IN EITHER CASE...ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS DURING MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE PRESERVED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.
ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS BEGINS TO RETREAT OFF
TO THE EAST.  UPR LVL FLOW PATTERN ALSO TRANSITIONS FROM A COLD MEAN
UPR LVL TROF OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES TO MID LVL RIDGING..  A WARM
FRONT WILL GRAZE OUR WRN AREAS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A BATCH OF WAA CLOUDINESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS MID LVL RIDGE HOLDS SWAY.
TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SHOW A GRADUAL MODERATION IN
TEMPS...MORE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$

FXUS61 KILN 210915
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
415 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2004
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WAA IN SWRLY FLO AHEAD OF CDFNT ACRS THE MS VLY. PRECIP SHUD STAY TO
THE N WHERE BEST DYNAMICS AND MSTR WL EXIST. TEMP WISE...BASED ON
UPSTREAM VALUES AND LO LVL THICKNESS TECHNIQUES PREFER HI/S A LTL
BLO WRMR MAV GUID.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WINTER STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL AFFECT THE FA WED/THU
TIME FRAME. AFOREMENTIONED FNTL BNDRY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OH THIS
EVE AND STALL OUT. SFC LO WHICH DVLPS ON THIS FNT TO LIFT NE FROM
THE LWR MS VLY INTO THE OH VLY BY THU MRNG. MODEL SOLN/S STILL VARY
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ETA SOLN IS THE FARTHEST E WITH A POSTION OVR
WRN PA BY 12Z THU...WHILE GFS IS STGR AND SLOWER HOLDING BACK THE
MAIN WAVE TO A PSN OVER WRN NC BY 12Z. ALL SOLN/S HAVE TRENDED
WEAKER AND AND FARTHER E. GFS MAY STILL BE HAVING FEEDBACK AND
HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED FCST TOWARD COLDER ETA SOLN.
DURG THE DAY ON WED A NICE 7H DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP BISSECTING FA
WITH STG MULTI-LAYER FRONTOGENEIS. ALSO...FAVORED THERMAL PROFILE
FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH BISSECTS THE BEST UVV WHICH WL MAXIMIZE
EFFICIENCY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. FOLLOWING COLDER ETA SOLN...EXPECT
WED TO BEGIN WITH ALL SNOW IN THE NW AND A TRANISTION ZONE ALONG I-71
AND ALL RAIN IN THE SE. AS LO LVL CAA COMMENCES EXPECT A CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW DURG THE DAY AND INTO WED EVE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
LARGE SNOWFALL TOTALS. WL ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ENTIRE
CWA WED/THU WITH WED NIGHT/THU WORDING IN THE SE. FOR NOW WL MENTION
POSSIBLE STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCH TOTALS ACRS THE CENTRAL FA AND
5 TO 7 ACRS W CNTRL OH AND 3 TO 5 INCHES SE OH/NE KY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN DEC 19 2004
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
STILL SEEING LARGE RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHICH SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN WHAT WILL OCCUR. THE 06Z GFS RUN LOOKED REASONABLE AND HAD
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF. SO HAVE PATTERNED FORECAST ON THESE
PARTICULAR MODEL RUNS. BUT OBVIOUSLY THE SCENARIO THAT ULTIMATELY
HAPPENS COULD BE VASTLY DIFFERENT.
WITH THAT CAVEAT IN MIND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE FOR THE
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES WHICH LOOK LIKE THEY MAY STAY IN THE COLD AIR.
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
THAT MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME. SO COLD
AIR MOVING IN ON THE BACK SIDE WILL RESULT IN A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW SHOULD END THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MORE OF AN AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IN
BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. SO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY BUT AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT IT IS BETTER TO
LEAVE IT OUT.
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 120 PM EST MON DEC 21 2004
AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST.  SKY COVER WILL
INCREASE DURING THE FORECAST AS FRONT MOVES IN AND POTENT WAVE
APPROACHES.  GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIP AHEAD OF THE MAJOR SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSING IN AT 06Z...BUT NOT YET AT TAF SITES.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES OHZ026-035-034-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>080 WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES OHZ081-082-088 WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     THROUGH THURSDAY.
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
     091 WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES KYZ089>098 WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES KYZ099-100 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
     THURSDAY.
&&
$$

FXUS61 KILN 210915
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
415 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2004
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WAA IN SWRLY FLO AHEAD OF CDFNT ACRS THE MS VLY. PRECIP SHUD STAY TO
THE N WHERE BEST DYNAMICS AND MSTR WL EXIST. TEMP WISE...BASED ON
UPSTREAM VALUES AND LO LVL THICKNESS TECHNIQUES PREFER HI/S A LTL
BLO WRMR MAV GUID.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WINTER STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL AFFECT THE FA WED/THU
TIME FRAME. AFOREMENTIONED FNTL BNDRY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OH THIS
EVE AND STALL OUT. SFC LO WHICH DVLPS ON THIS FNT TO LIFT NE FROM
THE LWR MS VLY INTO THE OH VLY BY THU MRNG. MODEL SOLN/S STILL VARY
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ETA SOLN IS THE FARTHEST E WITH A POSTION OVR
WRN PA BY 12Z THU...WHILE GFS IS STGR AND SLOWER HOLDING BACK THE
MAIN WAVE TO A PSN OVER WRN NC BY 12Z. ALL SOLN/S HAVE TRENDED
WEAKER AND AND FARTHER E. GFS MAY STILL BE HAVING FEEDBACK AND
HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED FCST TOWARD COLDER ETA SOLN.
DURG THE DAY ON WED A NICE 7H DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP BISSECTING FA
WITH STG MULTI-LAYER FRONTOGENEIS. ALSO...FAVORED THERMAL PROFILE
FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH BISSECTS THE BEST UVV WHICH WL MAXIMIZE
EFFICIENCY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. FOLLOWING COLDER ETA SOLN...EXPECT
WED TO BEGIN WITH ALL SNOW IN THE NW AND A TRANISTION ZONE ALONG I-71
AND ALL RAIN IN THE SE. AS LO LVL CAA COMMENCES EXPECT A CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW DURG THE DAY AND INTO WED EVE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
LARGE SNOWFALL TOTALS. WL ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ENTIRE
CWA WED/THU WITH WED NIGHT/THU WORDING IN THE SE. FOR NOW WL MENTION
POSSIBLE STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCH TOTALS ACRS THE CENTRAL FA AND
5 TO 7 ACRS W CNTRL OH AND 3 TO 5 INCHES SE OH/NE KY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN DEC 19 2004
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
STILL SEEING LARGE RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WLATER IN THE WEEK IN
BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. SO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY BUT AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT IT IS BETTER TO
LEAVE IT OUT.
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 120 PM EST MON DEC 21 2004
AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST.  SKY COVER WILL
INCREASE DURING THE FORECAST AS FRONT MOVES IN AND POTENT WAVE
APPROACHES.  GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIP AHEAD OF THE MAJOR SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSING IN AT 06Z...BUT NOT YET AT TAF SITES.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES OHZ026-035-034-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>080 WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES OHZ081-082-088 WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     THROUGH THURSDAY.
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
     091 WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES KYZ089>098 WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES KYZ099-100 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
     THURSDAY.
&&
$$
 

FXUS61 KILN 211148
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2004
.AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...
DRY COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING ILN TAF SITES WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT WIND SHIFT.  WINDS WILL PICK UP BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER
20KT AS 50 KT 850 MB FLOW MIXES DOWN A BIT.
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT TAF SITES BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST.  THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL LOWER
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE REGION.  FOR LATE
TONIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS STARTING AT
07Z FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION.  FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WAA IN SWRLY FLO AHEAD OF CDFNT ACRS THE MS VLY. PRECIP SHUD STAY TO
THE N WHERE BEST DYNAMICS AND MSTR WL EXIST. TEMP WISE...BASED ON
UPSTREAM VALUES AND LO LVL THICKNESS TECHNIQUES PREFER HI/S A LTL
BLO WRMR MAV GUID.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WINTER STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL AFFECT THE FA WED/THU
TIME FRAME. AFOREMENTIONED FNTL BNDRY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OH THIS
EVE AND STALL OUT. SFC LO WHICH DVLPS ON THIS FNT TO LIFT NE FROM
THE LWR MS VLY INTO THE OH VLY BY THU MRNG. MODEL SOLN/S STILL VARY
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ETA SOLN IS THE FARTHEST E WITH A POSTION OVR
WRN PA BY 12Z THU...WHILE GFS IS STGR AND SLOWER HOLDING BACK THE
MAIN WAVE TO A PSN OVER WRN NC BY 12Z. ALL SOLN/S HAVE TRENDED
WEAKER AND AND FARTHER E. GFS MAY STILL BE HAVING FEEDBACK AND
HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED FCST TOWARD COLDER ETA SOLN.
DURG THE DAY ON WED A NICE 7H DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP BISSECTING FA
WITH STG MULTI-LAYER FRONTOGENEIS. ALSO...FAVORED THERMAL PROFILE
FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH BISSECTS THE BEST UVV WHICH WL MAXIMIZE
EFFICIENCY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. FOLLOWING COLDER ETA SOLN...EXPECT
WED TO BEGIN WITH ALL SNOW IN THE NW AND A TRANISTION ZONE ALONG I-71
AND ALL RAIN IN THE SE. AS LO LVL CAA COMMENCES EXPECT A CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW DURG THE DAY AND INTO WED EVE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
LARGE SNOWFALL TOTALS. WL ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ENTIRE
CWA WED/THU WITH WED NIGHT/THU WORDING IN THE SE. FOR NOW WL MENTION
POSSIBLE STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCH TOTALS ACRS THE CENTRAL FA AND
5 TO 7 ACRS W CNTRL OH AND 3 TO 5 INCHES SE OH/NE KY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN DEC 19 2004
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
STILL SEEING LARGE RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHICH SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN WHAT WILL OCCUR. THE 06Z GFS RUN LOOKED REASONABLE AND HAD
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF. SO HAVE PATTERNED FORECAST ON THESE
PARTICULAR MODEL RUNS. BUT OBVIOUSLY THE SCENARIO THAT ULTIMATELY
HAPPENS COULD BE VASTLY DIFFERENT.
WITH THAT CAVEAT IN MIND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE FOR THE
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES WHICH LOOK LIKE THEY MAY STAY IN THE COLD AIR.
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
THAT MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME. SO COLD
AIR MOVING IN ON THE BACK SIDE WILL RESULT IN A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW SHOULD END THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MORE OF AN AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IN
BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. SO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY BUT AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT IT IS BETTER TO
LEAVE IT OUT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES OHZ026-035-034-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>080 WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES OHZ081-082-088 WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     THROUGH THURSDAY.
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
     091 WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES KYZ089>098 WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES KYZ099-100 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
     THURSDAY.
&&
$$

FXUS61 KILN 211624
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1123 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2004
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FORECAST AREA IN BROAD SWLY FLOW WITH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINIOUS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BAND OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME CIRRUS ACROSS THE NORTH.
HAVE UPDATED TO RESOLVE CLOUD WORDING FOR TODAY.  OTHER THAN THAT
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GREAT SHAPE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 645 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2004
AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...
DRY COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING ILN TAF SITES WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT WIND SHIFT.  WINDS WILL PICK UP BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER
20KT AS 50 KT 850 MB FLOW MIXES DOWN A BIT.
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT TAF SITES BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST.  THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL LOWER
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE REGION.  FOR LATE
TONIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS STARTING AT
07Z FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION.  FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WAA IN SWRLY FLO AHEAD OF CDFNT ACRS THE MS VLY. PRECIP SHUD STAY TO
THE N WHERE BEST DYNAMICS AND MSTR WL EXIST. TEMP WISE...BASED ON
UPSTREAM VALUES AND LO LVL THICKNESS TECHNIQUES PREFER HI/S A LTL
BLO WRMR MAV GUID.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WINTER STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL AFFECT THE FA WED/THU
TIME FRAME. AFOREMENTIONED FNTL BNDRY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OH THIS
EVE AND STALL OUT. SFC LO WHICH DVLPS ON THIS FNT TO LIFT NE FROM
THE LWR MS VLY INTO THE OH VLY BY THU MRNG. MODEL SOLN/S STILL VARY
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ETA SOLN IS THE FARTHEST E WITH A POSTION OVR
WRN PA BY 12Z THU...WHILE GFS IS STGR AND SLOWER HOLDING BACK THE
MAIN WAVE TO A PSN OVER WRN NC BY 12Z. ALL SOLN/S HAVE TRENDED
WEAKER AND AND FARTHER E. GFS MAY STILL BE HAVING FEEDBACK AND
HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED FCST TOWARD COLDER ETA SOLN.
DURG THE DAY ON WED A NICE 7H DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP BISSECTING FA
WITH STG MULTI-LAYER FRONTOGENEIS. ALSO...FAVORED THERMAL PROFILE
FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH BISSECTS THE BEST UVV WHICH WL MAXIMIZE
EFFICIENCY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. FOLLOWING COLDER ETA SOLN...EXPECT
WED TO BEGIN WITH ALL SNOW IN THE NW AND A TRANISTION ZONE ALONG I-71
AND ALL RAIN IN THE SE. AS LO LVL CAA COMMENCES EXPECT A CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW DURG THE DAY AND INTO WED EVE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
LARGE SNOWFALL TOTALS. WL ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ENTIRE
CWA WED/THU WITH WED NIGHT/THU WORDING IN THE SE. FOR NOW WL MENTION
POSSIBLE STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCH TOTALS ACRS THE CENTRAL FA AND
5 TO 7 ACRS W CNTRL OH AND 3 TO 5 INCHES SE OH/NE KY.
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN DEC 19 2004
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
STILL SEEING LARGE RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHICH SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN WHAT WILL OCCUR. THE 06Z GFS RUN LOOKED REASONABLE AND HAD
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF. SO HAVE PATTERNED FORECAST ON THESE
PARTICULAR MODEL RUNS. BUT OBVIOUSLY THE SCENARIO THAT ULTIMATELY
HAPPENS COULD BE VASTLY DIFFERENT.
WITH THAT CAVEAT IN MIND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE FOR THE
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES WHICH LOOK LIKE THEY MAY STAY IN THE COLD AIR.
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
THAT MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME. SO COLD
AIR MOVING IN ON THE BACK SIDE WILL RESULT IN A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW SHOULD END THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MORE OF AN AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IN
BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. SO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY BUT AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT IT IS BETTER TO
LEAVE IT OUT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES OHZ026-035-034-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>080 WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES OHZ081-082-088 WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     THROUGH THURSDAY.
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
     091 WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES KYZ089>098 WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES KYZ099-100 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
     THURSDAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM: TIPTON
 

FXUS61 KILN 211821
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...18Z AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
120 PM EST TUE DEC 21 2004
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
AC/CI CONTINUING TO STREAM ACRS FCST AREA THIS AFTN.  BROAD AREA OF
SC JUST SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER SLOWLY MOVING NORTH.  ISENT LIFT DVLPG
LATE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT...THEN DEEPENS AS SFC LO BEGINS TO GET
ITS ACT TOGETHER ACRS GULF COAST REGION.  WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH FROM GRT LKS WILL STALL JUST EAST OF TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.
BKN MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH SC DECK WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD TAF SITES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTN...WITH ENTIRE REGION UNDER SC BY 00Z.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NW AS FRNTL BNDRY CROSSES FCST AREA...WITH
CRIT THICKNESSES DROPPING TO I-71 CORRIDOR AFT 06Z.  THIS WILL BE
CRITICAL AS ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PCPN DVLPS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z AT ALL
TAF SITES.  SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENUF FOR PCPN TO REMAIN ALL -SN AT
KDAY...BUT EXPECTING SOME SORT OF A MIXED BAG OF PCPN AT REMAINING
FIVE TAF SITES AT PCPN ONSET. HAVE GONE WITH A -FZRAPL MIXTURE FOR
THREE TO SIX HOURS AT OTHER TAF SITES...WITH STRENGTHENING CAA
CAUSING PCPN TO SWITCHOVER TO -SN AT ALL TAF SITES BY MID MRNG WED.
CRIT THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF I-71 FOR REMAINDER
OF AFTN...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL REMAIN SNOW AFTER THE
CHANGE.  THE 00Z TAFS WILL BE ABLE TO ADDRESS THIS IN GREATER
DETAIL...ALONG WITH BEING MORE SPECIFIC ABOUT HOW LONG OF A PERIOD
OF MIXED PCPN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT IN CMH AND CVG METROS.  ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWS WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED FOR LATE AFTN
AND EVNG HOURS ON WED AS STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AXIS WILL
SWING ACRS FCST AREA.  STAY TUNED.
RYAN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 645 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2004
AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...
DRY COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING ILN TAF SITES WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT WIND SHIFT.  WINDS WILL PICK UP BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER
20KT AS 50 KT 850 MB FLOW MIXES DOWN A BIT.
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT TAF SITES BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST.  THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL LOWER
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE REGION.  FOR LATE
TONIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS STARTING AT
07Z FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION.  FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WAA IN SWRLY FLO AHEAD OF CDFNT ACRS THE MS VLY. PRECIP SHUD STAY TO
THE N WHERE BEST DYNAMICS AND MSTR WL EXIST. TEMP WISE...BASED ON
UPSTREAM VALUES AND LO LVL THICKNESS TECHNIQUES PREFER HI/S A LTL
BLO WRMR MAV GUID.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WINTER STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL AFFECT THE FA WED/THU
TIME FRAME. AFOREMENTIONED FNTL BNDRY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OH THIS
EVE AND STALL OUT. SFC LO WHICH DVLPS ON THIS FNT TO LIFT NE FROM
THE LWR MS VLY INTO THE OH VLY BY THU MRNG. MODEL SOLN/S STILL VARY
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ETA SOLN IS THE FARTHEST E WITH A POSTION OVR
WRN PA BY 12Z THU...WHILE GFS IS STGR AND SLOWER HOLDING BACK THE
MAIN WAVE TO A PSN OVER WRN NC BY 12Z. ALL SOLN/S HAVE TRENDED
WEAKER AND AND FARTHER E. GFS MAY STILL BE HAVING FEEDBACK AND
HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED FCST TOWARD COLDER ETA SOLN.
DURG THE DAY ON WED A NICE 7H DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP BISSECTING FA
WITH STG MULTI-LAYER FRONTOGENEIS. ALSO...FAVORED THERMAL PROFILE
FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH BISSECTS THE BEST UVV WHICH WL MAXIMIZE
EFFICIENCY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. FOLLOWING COLDER ETA SOLN...EXPECT
WED TO BEGIN WITH ALL SNOW IN THE NW AND A TRANISTION ZONE ALONG I-71
AND ALL RAIN IN THE SE. AS LO LVL CAA COMMENCES EXPECT A CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW DURG THE DAY AND INTO WED EVE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
LARGE SNOWFALL TOTALS. WL ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ENTIRE
CWA WED/THU WITH WED NIGHT/THU WORDING IN THE SE. FOR NOW WL MENTION
POSSIBLE STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCH TOTALS ACRS THE CENTRAL FA AND
5 TO 7 ACRS W CNTRL OH AND 3 TO 5 INCHES SE OH/NE KY.
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN DEC 19 2004
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
STILL SEEING LARGE RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHICH SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN WHAT WILL OCCUR. THE 06Z GFS RUN LOOKED REASONABLE AND HAD
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF. SO HAVE PATTERNED FORECAST ON THESE
PARTICULAR MODEL RUNS. BUT OBVIOUSLY THE SCENARIO THAT ULTIMATELY
HAPPENS COULD BE VASTLY DIFFERENT.
WITH THAT CAVEAT IN MIND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE FOR THE
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES WHICH LOOK LIKE THEY MAY STAY IN THE COLD AIR.
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
THAT MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME. SO COLD
AIR MOVING IN ON THE BACK SIDE WILL RESULT IN A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW SHOULD END THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MORE OF AN AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IN
BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. SO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY BUT AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT IT IS BETTER TO
LEAVE IT OUT.
&&
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 1123 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2004
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FORECAST AREA IN BROAD SWLY FLOW WITH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINIOUS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BAND OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME CIRRUS ACROSS THE NORTH.
HAVE UPDATED TO RESOLVE CLOUD WORDING FOR TODAY.  OTHER THAN THAT
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GREAT SHAPE.
TIPTON
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES OHZ026-035-034-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>080 WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES OHZ081-082-088 WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     THROUGH THURSDAY.
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
     091 WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES KYZ089>098 WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES KYZ099-100 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
     THURSDAY.
&&
$$

FXUS61 KILN 212046
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
345 PM EST TUE DEC 21 2004
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
BEAR OF A FCST IN THE WORKS WITH WINTER EVENT DEVELOPING WED...
REACHING FULL FORCE WED PM AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH HOW THE EVENT WILL DEVELOP AND WORK OUT...WITH
RELATIVELY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ETA.
GFS MODEL IS A BIT MORE AGRESSIVE WITH THE H5 VORT AND ASSOC WAA IN
THE WARM SECTOR. ETA AND NGM ARE A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER
AND WILL BASE THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW EVENT ON THE ETA FIELDS WITH
A SLIGHT NW TREND (ONLY A COUNTIES DISTANCE) TO HEDGE TOWARDS THE
GFS.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT FOR ENTIRE FCST AREA STARTING WED
AND ENDING EARLY THURS. ALONG AND SE OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...A PERIOD
OF RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE SNOW HITS. A
LITTLE MORE FZRA IS EXPECTED TO THE S IN KY AND SOME ICE ACCUMS ARE
POSSIBLE. REST OF I-71 CORRIDOR COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FZRA AS WELL...
BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING A LITTLE ICE ACCUM WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION BEING AFFECTED BY SNOW. A QUICKER CHANGEOVER
IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND ICE ACCUMS SHOULDN'T BE TREMENDOUS...BUT
IT ONLY TAKES A REAL THIN LAYER TO WREAK HAVOC. ONCE THE RAIN CHANGES
TO SNOW...A PROLONGED STEADY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH A HEAVY BAND
EXPECTED TO BISECT CWA ALONG I-71 CORRIDOR. AMOUNT OF FORCING WITH
THE FRONT AND UNUSUALLY MOIST AIRMASS (.8+ PWATS) IN THE WARM SECTOR
WILL COMBINE FOR A SWATH OF AROUND A FOOT HERE - KEEP IN MIND THAT
THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A MID POINT AVERAGE OF A NARROW BAND -SOME WILL
SEE A BIT LESS AND MORE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY. IT'S ALREADY COVERED
WITH THE WARNING AND I'M NOT GOING TO EINSTEIN THE MAX QPF - IT'LL BE
ENOUGH FOR ANY SNOW BUFF.
TEMPS HAVEN'T BEEN CHANGED MUCH BUT FOCUS IS ON THE GRADIENT WITH
THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERTOP OF US BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
A GOOD PART OF TOMORROW AND TOMORROW EVENING. ANOTHER ARCTIC SHOT
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS EVENT...AND SNOW COVER WILL LET READINGS DROP
WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
FRANKS
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE EXTENDED FCST WILL BE UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AN ARCTIC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VLY ON
FRIDAY...SETTLING ACRS THE OHIO VLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WITH ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER...HAVE GONE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS/LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.  SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A DRY
CHRISTMAS...THOSE WHO RECEIVE SNOW COVER WILL HAVE IT TO ENJOY FOR
THE HOLIDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW.  AT THE SAME
TIME...THE UPR LVL FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM A TROF OVER THE
NERN UNITED STATES TO A MID LVL RIDGE OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS SPELLS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  AGAIN...WITH ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER...THIS
SHOULD MITIGATE THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
GENERALLY HAVE GONE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD
WARM UP INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY.  THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN IS EXPECTED
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APCHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE NW.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
AC/CI CONTINUING TO STREAM ACRS FCST AREA THIS AFTN.  BROAD AREA OF
SC JUST SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER SLOWLY MOVING NORTH.  ISENT LIFT DVLPG
LATE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT...THEN DEEPENS AS SFC LO BEGINS TO GET
ITS ACT TOGETHER ACRS GULF COAST REGION.  WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH FROM GRT LKS WILL STALL JUST EAST OF TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.
BKN MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH SC DECK WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD TAF SITES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTN...WITH ENTIRE REGION UNDER SC BY 00Z.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NW AS FRNTL BNDRY CROSSES FCST AREA...WITH
CRIT THICKNESSES DROPPING TO I-71 CORRIDOR AFT 06Z.  THIS WILL BE
CRITICAL AS ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PCPN DVLPS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z AT ALL
TAF SITES.  SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENUF FOR PCPN TO REMAIN ALL -SN AT
KDAY...BUT EXPECTING SOME SORT OF A MIXED BAG OF PCPN AT REMAINING
FIVE TAF SITES AT PCPN ONSET. HAVE GONE WITH A -FZRAPL MIXTURE FOR
THREE TO SIX HOURS AT OTHER TAF SITES...WITH STRENGTHENING CAA
CAUSING PCPN TO SWITCHOVER TO -SN AT ALL TAF SITES BY MID MRNG WED.
CRIT THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF I-71 FOR REMAINDER
OF AFTN...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL REMAIN SNOW AFTER THE
CHANGE.  THE 00Z TAFS WILL BE ABLE TO ADDRESS THIS IN GREATER
DETAIL...ALONG WITH BEING MORE SPECIFIC ABOUT HOW LONG OF A PERIOD
OF MIXED PCPN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT IN CMH AND CVG METROS.  ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWS WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED FOR LATE AFTN
AND EVNG HOURS ON WED AS STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AXIS WILL
SWING ACRS FCST AREA.  STAY TUNED.
RYAN
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES OHZ026-035-034-042>046-
     051>056-062>064 WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES OHZ060-061-070>072-077>080
    TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES OHZ065-073-074-081-082-
     088 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
     091 TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES KYZ089>097 TONIGHT THROUGH
     THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES KYZ098>100 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
     THURSDAY.
&&
$$
 

FXUS61 KILN 220344
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1045 PM EST TUE DEC 21 2004
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
SOME PRECIP SHOWING UP JUST SOUTH OF OUR FA...REFLECTING AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
PIVITING NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR WORKING ITS
WAY SW'WRD BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO BEGIN AS
RAIN...THEN TRANSITION RATHER QUICKLY TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...THEN TO LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM CVG NORTHEAST
TO WILMINGTON. AREAS S AND SW OF THIS LINE SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
BEAR OF A FCST IN THE WORKS WITH WINTER EVENT DEVELOPING WED...
REACHING FULL FORCE WED PM AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH HOW THE EVENT WILL DEVELOP AND WORK OUT...WITH
RELATIVELY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ETA.
GFS MODEL IS A BIT MORE AGRESSIVE WITH THE H5 VORT AND ASSOC WAA IN
THE WARM SECTOR. ETA AND NGM ARE A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER
AND WILL BASE THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW EVENT ON THE ETA FIELDS WITH
A SLIGHT NW TREND (ONLY A COUNTIES DISTANCE) TO HEDGE TOWARDS THE
GFS.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT FOR ENTIRE FCST AREA STARTING WED
AND ENDING EARLY THURS. ALONG AND SE OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...A PERIOD
OF RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE SNOW HITS. A
LITTLE MORE FZRA IS EXPECTED TO THE S IN KY AND SOME ICE ACCUMS ARE
POSSIBLE. REST OF I-71 CORRIDOR COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FZRA AS WELL...
BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING A LITTLE ICE ACCUM WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION BEING AFFECTED BY SNOW. A QUICKER CHANGEOVER
IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND ICE ACCUMS SHOULDN'T BE TREMENDOUS...BUT
IT ONLY TAKES A REAL THIN LAYER TO WREAK HAVOC. ONCE THE RAIN CHANGES
TO SNOW...A PROLONGED STEADY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH A HEAVY BAND
EXPECTED TO BISECT CWA ALONG I-71 CORRIDOR. AMOUNT OF FORCING WITH
THE FRONT AND UNUSUALLY MOIST AIRMASS (.8+ PWATS) IN THE WARM SECTOR
WILL COMBINE FOR A SWATH OF AROUND A FOOT HERE - KEEP IN MIND THAT
THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A MID POINT AVERAGE OF A NARROW BAND -SOME WILL
SEE A BIT LESS AND MORE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY. IT'S ALREADY COVERED
WITH THE WARNING AND I'M NOT GOING TO EINSTEIN THE MAX QPF - IT'LL BE
ENOUGH FOR ANY SNOW BUFF.
TEMPS HAVEN'T BEEN CHANGED MUCH BUT FOCUS IS ON THE GRADIENT WITH
THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERTOP OF US BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
A GOOD PART OF TOMORROW AND TOMORROW EVENING. ANOTHER ARCTIC SHOT
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS EVENT...AND SNOW COVER WILL LET READINGS DROP
WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
FRANKS
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE EXTENDED FCST WILL BE UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AN ARCTIC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VLY ON
FRIDAY...SETTLING ACRS THE OHIO VLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WITH ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER...HAVE GONE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS/LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.  SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A DRY
CHRISTMAS...THOSE WHO RECEIVE SNOW COVER WILL HAVE IT TO ENJOY FOR
THE HOLIDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW.  AT THE SAME
TIME...THE UPR LVL FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM A TROF OVER THE
NERN UNITED STATES TO A MID LVL RIDGE OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS SPELLS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  AGAIN...WITH ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER...THIS
SHOULD MITIGATE THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
GENERALLY HAVE GONE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD
WARM UP INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY.  THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN IS EXPECTED
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APCHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE NW.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES OHZ026-035-034-042>046-
     051>056-062>064 WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES OHZ060-061-070>072-077>080
    TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES OHZ065-073-074-081-082-
     088 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
     091 TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES KYZ089>097 TONIGHT THROUGH
     THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES KYZ098>100 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
     THURSDAY.
&&
$$
 

FXUS61 KILN 220558
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1259 AM EST WED DEC 22 2004
.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
INGREDIENTS FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM ARE COMING TOGETHER.  RAIN
NORTH OF AN INVERTED TROF HAS ALREADY BEGUN AT CVG AND LUK.  COLD
FRONT IS CHARGING EASTWARD AND WILL CHANGE RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW.
PRECIP WILL BEGIN AT ALL SITES BY 11Z.  PRECIP WILL INTENSIFY AS THE
TROF DEEPENS...CLOSES OFF AND MOVES TO EASTERN OHIO BY THURSDAY
MORNING. PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.
IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AS VISIBILITIES WILL FALL AS
LOW AS VERY LOW IFR...CEILINGS TO LOW IFR.  WINDS WILL PICK UP BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST AS THE LOW CRANKS UP...WITH BLOWING SNOW
BEING THE RESULT. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS BAD AT CMH AND
LCK...WHERE WARMER AIR IS PROGGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
SOME PRECIP SHOWING UP JUST SOUTH OF OUR FA...REFLECTING AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
PIVOTING NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR WORKING ITS
WAY SW'WRD BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO BEGIN AS
RAIN...THEN TRANSITION RATHER QUICKLY TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...THEN TO LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM CVG NORTHEAST
TO WILMINGTON. AREAS S AND SW OF THIS LINE SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
BEAR OF A FCST IN THE WORKS WITH WINTER EVENT DEVELOPING WED...
REACHING FULL FORCE WED PM AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH HOW THE EVENT WILL DEVELOP AND WORK OUT...WITH
RELATIVELY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ETA.
GFS MODEL IS A BIT MORE AGRESSIVE WITH THE H5 VORT AND ASSOC WAA IN
THE WARM SECTOR. ETA AND NGM ARE A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER
AND WILL BASE THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW EVENT ON THE ETA FIELDS WITH
A SLIGHT NW TREND (ONLY A COUNTIES DISTANCE) TO HEDGE TOWARDS THE
GFS.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT FOR ENTIRE FCST AREA STARTING WED
AND ENDING EARLY THURS. ALONG AND SE OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...A PERIOD
OF RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE SNOW HITS. A
LITTLE MORE FZRA IS EXPECTED TO THE S IN KY AND SOME ICE ACCUMS ARE
POSSIBLE. REST OF I-71 CORRIDOR COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FZRA AS WELL...
BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING A LITTLE ICE ACCUM WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION BEING AFFECTED BY SNOW. A QUICKER CHANGEOVER
IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND ICE ACCUMS SHOULDN'T BE TREMENDOUS...BUT
IT ONLY TAKES A REAL THIN LAYER TO WREAK HAVOC. ONCE THE RAIN CHANGES
TO SNOW...A PROLONGED STEADY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH A HEAVY BAND
EXPECTED TO BISECT CWA ALONG I-71 CORRIDOR. AMOUNT OF FORCING WITH
THE FRONT AND UNUSUALLY MOIST AIRMASS (.8+ PWATS) IN THE WARM SECTOR
WILL COMBINE FOR A SWATH OF AROUND A FOOT HERE - KEEP IN MIND THAT
THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A MID POINT AVERAGE OF A NARROW BAND -SOME WILL
SEE A BIT LESS AND MORE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY. IT'S ALREADY COVERED
WITH THE WARNING AND I'M NOT GOING TO EINSTEIN THE MAX QPF - IT'LL BE
ENOUGH FOR ANY SNOW BUFF.
TEMPS HAVEN'T BEEN CHANGED MUCH BUT FOCUS IS ON THE GRADIENT WITH
THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERTOP OF US BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
A GOOD PART OF TOMORROW AND TOMORROW EVENING. ANOTHER ARCTIC SHOT
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS EVENT...AND SNOW COVER WILL LET READINGS DROP
WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
FRANKS
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE EXTENDED FCST WILL BE UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AN ARCTIC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VLY ON
FRIDAY...SETTLING ACRS THE OHIO VLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WITH ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER...HAVE GONE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS/LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.  SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A DRY
CHRISTMAS...THOSE WHO RECEIVE SNOW COVER WILL HAVE IT TO ENJOY FOR
THE HOLIDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW.  AT THE SAME
TIME...THE UPR LVL FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM A TROF OVER THE
NERN UNITED STATES TO A MID LVL RIDGE OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS SPELLS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  AGAIN...WITH ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER...THIS
SHOULD MITIGATE THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
GENERALLY HAVE GONE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD
WARM UP INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY.  THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN IS EXPECTED
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APCHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE NW.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES OHZ026-035-034-042>046-
     051>056-062>064 WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES OHZ060-061-070>072-077>080
    TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES OHZ065-073-074-081-082-
     088 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
     091 TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES KYZ089>097 TONIGHT THROUGH
     THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES KYZ098>100 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
     THURSDAY.
&&
$$
 

FXUS61 KILN 220918
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
418 AM EST WED DEC 22 2004
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE STAGE IS SET FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM. LATEST SFC MAP SHWS
THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED TO A PSN ALONG I-71. THIS BNDRY
WL CONT TO SLIP E INTO SE OH BY AFTN. MODEL SOLN/S HAVE COME INTO
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LWR MS VLY SFC WAVE TRACKING NR ALONG THIS
BNDRY TO A PSN OVER SE OH BY 12Z THU.
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO CONT THRU THE DAY AS THERMAL PROFILE
COOLS. 290-295K SFCS SHOW LIFT INCREASING TONIGHT WITH 45-5OKT
FLO BECOMING MORE ORTHOGONAL AROUND 06Z. AXIS OF STG FRONTOGENESIS
AND 7H DEFORMATION INTO NW HALF OF CWA THIS EVENING. BEST LIFT
EXPECTED BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AND THIS IS COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE
AXIS FOR DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH MAXIMIZING SNOWFALL. EXPECT
SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY THIS EVENING FROM E CNTRL INDIANA THRU W CNTRL
OH. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT RAIN SNOW LINE WHICH SETS UP CLOSE
TO AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY SLIPS SLOWLY EAST AS CAA COMMENCES. GIVEN
STG LIFT AND THERMAL FIELDS...HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO STORM
TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACRS THE NW PTN OF FA (AOH, DAY,
RICHMOND) AND 8-12 INCHES (CVG, ILN) AND 6 -10 INCHES IN CMH
WHERE WARM AIR ALOFT WL ALLOW FOR MORE MIXING WITH SLEET AS 8H LO
APPROACHES TNGT. IN SE OH/NE KY EXPECT MAINLY RAIN TODAY WITH A
TRANSITION LATE AND THEN ONLY AN INCH OR TWO TNGT AND ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO THU. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER ADVSY IN THIS
LOCATION.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 345 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2004
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE EXTENDED FCST WILL BE UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AN ARCTIC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VLY ON
FRIDAY...SETTLING ACRS THE OHIO VLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WITH ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER...HAVE GONE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS/LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.  SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A DRY
CHRISTMAS...THOSE WHO RECEIVE SNOW COVER WILL HAVE IT TO ENJOY FOR
THE HOLIDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW.  AT THE SAME
TIME...THE UPR LVL FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM A TROF OVER THE
NERN UNITED STATES TO A MID LVL RIDGE OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS SPELLS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  AGAIN...WITH ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER...THIS
SHOULD MITIGATE THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
GENERALLY HAVE GONE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD
WARM UP INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY.  THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN IS EXPECTED
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APCHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE NW.
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST WED DEC 22 2004
AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
INGREDIENTS FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM ARE COMING TOGETHER.  RAIN
NORTH OF AN INVERTED TROF HAS ALREADY BEGUN AT CVG AND LUK.  COLD
FRONT IS CHARGING EASTWARD AND WILL CHANGE RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW.
PRECIP WILL BEGIN AT ALL SITES BY 11Z.  PRECIP WILL INTENSIFY AS THE
TROF DEEPENS...CLOSES OFF AND MOVES TO EASTERN OHIO BY THURSDAY
MORNING. PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.
IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AS VISIBILITIES WILL FALL AS
LOW AS VERY LOW IFR...CEILINGS TO LOW IFR.  WINDS WILL PICK UP BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST AS THE LOW CRANKS UP...WITH BLOWING SNOW
BEING THE RESULT. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS BAD AT CMH AND
LCK...WHERE WARMER AIR IS PROGGED.
&&
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES OHZ026-035-034-042>046-
     051>056-060>064-070>072-077>080 THROUGH THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES OHZ065-073-074-081-082-
     088 TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
     091 THROUGH THURSDAY.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES KYZ089>097 THROUGH THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES KYZ098>100 TONIGHT THROUGH
     THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
$$
 

FXUS61 KILN 221143
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EST WED DEC 22 2004
AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...
MAJOR WINTER STORM IS MAKING IT PRESENCE FELT.  -FZRA IS OCCURRING
AT ILN CVG AND LUK...WITH -SN STARTING AT COLDER DAY. LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP IS OCCURRING FARTHER EAST AT CMH AND LCK. COLDER AIR PUSHING
SOUTHEAST FROM IOWA WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AT DAY ILN LUK
AND CVG EARLY TODAY. BAND OF MODERATE SNOW STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THROUGH WESTERN OHIO IS PROPAGATING EASTWARD AND IT WILL
SOON INFLUENCE WESTERN TAF SITES. THREAT FOR FZRA AND PL WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL 00Z AT CMH AND LCK WITH WARMER AIR BEING
ENTRAINED THERE.
PRECIP WILL INTENSIFY AS THE TROF DEEPENS...CLOSES OFF AND
MOVES TO EASTERN OHIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIP IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST.
IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AS VISIBILITIES WILL FALL AS
LOW AS VERY LOW IFR...CEILINGS TO LOW IFR.  WINDS WILL PICK UP BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST AS THE LOW CRANKS UP...WITH BLOWING SNOW
BEING THE RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE STAGE IS SET FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM. LATEST SFC MAP SHWS
THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED TO A PSN ALONG I-71. THIS BNDRY
WL CONT TO SLIP E INTO SE OH BY AFTN. MODEL SOLN/S HAVE COME INTO
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LWR MS VLY SFC WAVE TRACKING NR ALONG THIS
BNDRY TO A PSN OVER SE OH BY 12Z THU.
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO CONT THRU THE DAY AS THERMAL PROFILE
COOLS. 290-295K SFCS SHOW LIFT INCREASING TONIGHT WITH 45-5OKT
FLO BECOMING MORE ORTHOGONAL AROUND 06Z. AXIS OF STG FRONTOGENESIS
AND 7H DEFORMATION INTO NW HALF OF CWA THIS EVENING. BEST LIFT
EXPECTED BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AND THIS IS COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE
AXIS FOR DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH MAXIMIZING SNOWFALL. EXPECT
SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY THIS EVENING FROM E CNTRL INDIANA THRU W CNTRL
OH. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT RAIN SNOW LINE WHICH SETS UP CLOSE
TO AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY SLIPS SLOWLY EAST AS CAA COMMENCES. GIVEN
STG LIFT AND THERMAL FIELDS...HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO STORM
TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACRS THE NW PTN OF FA (AOH, DAY,
RICHMOND) AND 8-12 INCHES (CVG, ILN) AND 6 -10 INCHES IN CMH
WHERE WARM AIR ALOFT WL ALLOW FOR MORE MIXING WITH SLEET AS 8H LO
APPROACHES TNGT. IN SE OH/NE KY EXPECT MAINLY RAIN TODAY WITH A
TRANSITION LATE AND THEN ONLY AN INCH OR TWO TNGT AND ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO THU. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER ADVSY IN THIS
LOCATION.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 345 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2004
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE EXTENDED FCST WILL BE UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AN ARCTIC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VLY ON
FRIDAY...SETTLING ACRS THE OHIO VLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WITH ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER...HAVE GONE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS/LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.  SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A DRY
CHRISTMAS...THOSE WHO RECEIVE SNOW COVER WILL HAVE IT TO ENJOY FOR
THE HOLIDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW.  AT THE SAME
TIME...THE UPR LVL FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM A TROF OVER THE
NERN UNITED STATES TO A MID LVL RIDGE OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS SPELLS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  AGAIN...WITH ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER...THIS
SHOULD MITIGATE THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
GENERALLY HAVE GONE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD
WARM UP INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY.  THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN IS EXPECTED
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APCHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE NW.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES OHZ026-035-034-042>046-
     051>056-060>064-070>072-077>080 THROUGH THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES OHZ065-073-074-081-082-
     088 TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
     091 THROUGH THURSDAY.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES KYZ089>097 THROUGH THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES KYZ098>100 TONIGHT THROUGH
     THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
$$
 

FXUS61 KILN 221410
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
910 AM EST WED DEC 22 2004
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT RECENT SNOWFALL.  DEFORMATION ZONE HAS
SET UP FROM CONNERSVILLE TO DAYTON TO BELLFONTAINE.  GENERALLY 3 TO
5 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN IN THIS AREA...THUS UPDATED SNOWFALL FOR
TODAY TO GO 4 TO 10 INCHES. THE REASON FOR THE 4 IS MERCER COUNTY IS
JUST TO THE NW OF DEFOREMATION ZONE AND HAS NOT HAD MUCH (APPROX AN
INCH). ALSO HAD TO ADJUST STORM TOTAL ON THURSDAY.
PNS WITH RECENT SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE SENT OUT AROUND 11 AM.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 645 AM EST WED DEC 22 2004
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE STAGE IS SET FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM. LATEST SFC MAP SHWS
THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED TO A PSN ALONG I-71. THIS BNDRY
WL CONT TO SLIP E INTO SE OH BY AFTN. MODEL SOLN/S HAVE COME INTO
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LWR MS VLY SFC WAVE TRACKING NR ALONG THIS
BNDRY TO A PSN OVER SE OH BY 12Z THU.
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO CONT THRU THE DAY AS THERMAL PROFILE
COOLS. 290-295K SFCS SHOW LIFT INCREASING TONIGHT WITH 45-5OKT
FLO BECOMING MORE ORTHOGONAL AROUND 06Z. AXIS OF STG FRONTOGENESIS
AND 7H DEFORMATION INTO NW HALF OF CWA THIS EVENING. BEST LIFT
EXPECTED BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AND THIS IS COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE
AXIS FOR DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH MAXIMIZING SNOWFALL. EXPECT
SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY THIS EVENING FROM E CNTRL INDIANA THRU W CNTRL
OH. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT RAIN SNOW LINE WHICH SETS UP CLOSE
TO AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY SLIPS SLOWLY EAST AS CAA COMMENCES. GIVEN
STG LIFT AND THERMAL FIELDS...HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO STORM
TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACRS THE NW PTN OF FA (AOH, DAY,
RICHMOND) AND 8-12 INCHES (CVG, ILN) AND 6 -10 INCHES IN CMH
WHERE WARM AIR ALOFT WL ALLOW FOR MORE MIXING WITH SLEET AS 8H LO
APPROACHES TNGT. IN SE OH/NE KY EXPECT MAINLY RAIN TODAY WITH A
TRANSITION LATE AND THEN ONLY AN INCH OR TWO TNGT AND ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO THU. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER ADVSY IN THIS
LOCATION.
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 345 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2004
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE EXTENDED FCST WILL BE UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AN ARCTIC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VLY ON
FRIDAY...SETTLING ACRS THE OHIO VLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WITH ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER...HAVE GONE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS/LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.  SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A DRY
CHRISTMAS...THOSE WHO RECEIVE SNOW COVER WILL HAVE IT TO ENJOY FOR
THE HOLIDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW.  AT THE SAME
TIME...THE UPR LVL FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM A TROF OVER THE
NERN UNITED STATES TO A MID LVL RIDGE OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS SPELLS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  AGAIN...WITH ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER...THIS
SHOULD MITIGATE THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
GENERALLY HAVE GONE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD
WARM UP INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY.  THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN IS EXPECTED
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APCHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE NW.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES OHZ026-035-034-042>046-
     051>056-060>064-070>072-077>080 THROUGH THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES OHZ065-073-074-081-082-
     088 TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
     091 THROUGH THURSDAY.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES KYZ089>097 THROUGH THURSDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES KYZ098>100 TONIGHT THROUGH
     THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM: TIPTON
 

FXUS61 KILN 221751
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...18Z AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1251 PM EST WED DEC 22 2004
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
MAJOR SNOWSTORM NOW IN PROGRESS...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DETEORIRATE FURTHER INTO TONIGHT.  HEAVY SNOW HAS FALLEN IN BAND
THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED ACRS SRN INDIANA NORTH INTO DARKE AND SHELBY
COS FOR MUCH OF MRNG.  THAT BAND IS NOW SHIFTING EAST...AND IS
AFFECTING WESTERN TAF SITES ALONG I-75 (KDAY/KCVG/KLUK) NOW WITH
VSBYS AOB 1/4SM AND MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW.  EAST ERN TAF SITES
GENERALLY ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SN...BUT VSBYS HAVE DROPPED
DRAMATICALLY AT KILN IN LAST HOUR...AND WILL LIKELY DO SO IN CMH
METRO AREA WITHIN NEXT TWO HOURS.
AS SFC LO MOVES INTO TN VLY TONIGHT...MID LVL FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING
INCREASES AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE
AT ALL TAF SITES.  CURRENT RUC AND 12Z ETA MODELS CONTINUING TO
INDICATE SOME WARMER AIR MAY BE PULLED UP INTO CNTRL OH LATE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SN TO MIX WITH PL.  WHILE FEEL THAT DIABETIC
COOLING SHOULD HELP OVERCOME WARMING IN BNDRY LYR...WENT AHEAD AND
STUCK IN SNPL MIX AT KCMH AND KLCK FOR SVRL HOURS OVERNIGHT.  THE
1300M 1000-850 THICKNESS LINE WILL BE LITERALLY WITHIN 10-20 MILES
EAST OF THESE TAF SITES.  HOWEVER...FEEL PREDOMINANT PCPN TYPE EVEN
IN CMH METRO WILL BE IN FORM OF SNOW.
ONE OTHER ISSUE WHICH WILL BECOME A MAJOR FACTOR TONIGHT AND INTO
THURS AS SNOW BEGINS TO WIND DOWN.  SFC GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS LO
MOVES INTO EASTERN OHIO AND DEEPENS BY THURS AFTN.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDCG 30 KT WINDS ONLY 1500 TO 2500 FT AGL...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
MIX SOME OF THIS DOWN.  RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN N/NW WINDS
WITH GUSTS APPCHG 25KT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU THURS.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING PROBLEMS AT ALL TAF SITES...EVEN
ONCE SNOW WINDS DOWN BY LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN THURS.  WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS SITUATION EVOLVES THIS AFTN/EVNG.
RYAN
&&
THE FOLLOWING WAS ISSUED AT 910 AM EST WED DEC 22 2004
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT RECENT SNOWFALL.  DEFORMATION ZONE HAS
SET UP FROM CONNERSVILLE TO DAYTON TO BELLEFONTAINE.  GENERALLY 3 TO
5 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN IN THIS AREA...THUS UPDATED SNOWFALL FOR
TODAY TO GO 4 TO 10 INCHES. THE REASON FOR THE 4 IS MERCER COUNTY IS
JUST TO THE NW OF DEFORMATION ZONE AND HAS NOT HAD MUCH (APPROX AN
INCH). ALSO HAD TO ADJUST STORM TOTAL ON THURSDAY.
PNS WITH RECENT SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE SENT OUT AROUND 11 AM.
TIPTON
&&
.